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Ring Crafting

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Ring Crafting

Post  Valsu on Thu Dec 09, 2010 2:20 pm

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So, how many 3 star rings DOES it take to get a 10 star ring of epicness? This list will show you how much work is actually necessary for such a behemoth item.


This was taken from the IAH Forums and is authored by Flawgic.


Basic Assumptions:
Hypothetical maximum gaming time in hours per day: 16 (assume 8 hours of rest)
Hypothetical maximum gaming-lifespan in years : 60 (not including first 10 years of life, and assumed lifespan of 70 years)
Hypothetical maximum gaming-lifespan of a mmorpg in years : 5

1 year = 365.242199 days
Theoretical Maximum Time spent gaming in Hours: 60*365.242199*16 = 350632.511 (21037950.66 minutes)
Theoretical Maximum Time spent gaming in a(singular article) mmorpg in Hours: 5*365.242199*16 = 29219.37592 (1753162.555 minutes)

Creation of Solar Arka10 ring: (Assuming Need 3 to make 1)
1 X Arka10: 3 X Arka9: 3^2 X Arka8: 3^3 X Arka7....
Number of Solar Arka3 rings required: 1*3*3*3*3*3*3*3 = 2187

P(X), Probability of Guessing Correct Direction in F6 Mission: 0.5 (Assumed)
P(Y), Probability of Guessing Correct Direction 9 times: 0.5^9 = 0.001953125
P(R), Probability of Obtaining SolarArka3 Ring: 0.001953125*0.5 = 9.765625E-4

For Expectation of Event R, E(R) = 2187 (means that obtain 2187 SolarArka3 ring)
Number of tries, n, required:
E(R) = P(R)*n
2187 = 9.765625E-4 * n
n = 2239488

Average Time Required to complete Arka F6 Mission = 10mins
Hypothetical Time required to create SolarArka10 Ring = 22394880 minutes (373248 Hours)
From Above,
Theoretical Maximum time spent in dragonica = 1753162.555 minutes
Theoretical Maximum time spent gaming = 21037950.66 minutes
22394880 > 1753162.555
22394880 > 21037950.66

Time Spent obtaining SolarArka10 Ring as a proportion of Dragonica-lifespan: 22394880/1753162.555*100% = 1277%
Time Spent obtaining SolarArka10 Ring as a proportion of TOTAL gaming-lifespan: 22394880/21037950.66*100% = 106%

Therefore it is COMPLETELY impossible to obtain SolarArka10 Ring assuming maximum conditions under maximized circumstances. Q.E.D.

Number Crunching for use of Perfect Hunch

One perfect hunch = 500c = $0.50
Twenty Five perfect hunches = $12.50

Let event Q be the event that andvary drops a ring
P(Q) = 0.5 (given by game).
For E(Q) = 1 (that is to say obtain one ring)
E(Q) = P(Q)*n
n = 2

That is to say you expect to obtain 1 ring in 2 tries assuming u use perfect hunch all the way.
Expected Total cost for one SolarArka3 ring = 2*$12.50 = $25

From Above, Number of SolarArka3 rings required: 2187
Expected Total cost for one SolarArka10 ring: 2187*$25 = $54675 (SGD)
[ Even if the drop rate is 100%, the cost would be $54675/2 = $27337.50 (still a lot) ]

Now that money is out of the way, let's take time taken into consideration.
For 50% drop rate (given):
Number of tries expected = 2187*2 = 4374
Time taken per F6 run: 10mins
Total Expected Time: 43740 minutes = 729 hours = 45 days (16hour day assuming 8 hours rest)

45 days may be so much less time than 63.6+years, but don't forget that u're paying around $54675. (i could do alot more with that money)

In Perspective, $54675 roughly equates to:
-22000 plates of chicken rice
-10000 fast food meals
-223000 kWh of electricity (estimated domestic rate) which can power:
-one 30W Lightbulb for 7433333 Hours non-stop (approximately 850 years)
-one 500W Computer for 446000 Hours non-stop (approximately 51 years)



Quote:
Originally Posted by fisherman View Post
It is said to need 3 3-? ring to get 2 4-? rings.
Based on "need 3 to make 2"
To make 1 Arka10 is impossible, u will make 2.
To make 2 Arka10, you need 3 Arka9.
To make 3 Arka9 is impossible, u will make 4.
To make 4 Arka9, you need 6 Arka8.
To make 6 Arka8, you need 9 Arka7.
To make 9 Arka7 is impossible, u will make 10.
To make 10 Arka7, you need 15 Arka6.
To make 15 Arka6 is impossible, u will make 16.
To make 16 Arka6, you need 24 Arka5.
To make 24 Arka5, you need 36 Arka4.
To make 36 Arka4, you need 54 Arka3.

Now 54 makes for a more realistic number.

P(X), Probability of Guessing Correct Direction in F6 Mission: 0.5 (Assumed)
P(Y), Probability of Guessing Correct Direction 9 times: 0.5^9 = 0.001953125
P(R), Probability of Obtaining SolarArka3 Ring: 0.001953125*0.5 = 9.765625E-4

For Expectation of Event R, E(R) = 54 (means that obtain 54 SolarArka3 ring)
Number of tries, n, required:
E(R) = P(R)*n
54 = 9.765625E-4 * n
n = 55296

Average Time Required to complete Arka F6 Mission = 10mins
Hypothetical Time required to create SolarArka10 Ring = 552960 minutes (9216 Hours)(576days assuming 8hours rest per day)(1.57 years)(It's still a pretty long time)

Now let's take cash into consideration:

From Above, Number of SolarArka3 rings required: 54
Expected Total cost for one SolarArka10 ring: 54*$25 = $1350 (SGD)

Now that money is out of the way, let's take time taken into consideration.
For 50% drop rate (given):
Number of tries expected = 54*2 = 108
Time taken per F6 run: 10mins
Total Expected Time: 1080 minutes = 18 hours = 1 day (assuming 6 hours rest)

Under "need 3 to make 2" it is much more plausible to obtain a SolarArka10 given that the gamer is willing to spend around $1350.

Calculations have been adjusted since new information provided. ( 25 Perfect hunches required )
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eilrahc21 View Post

I used 25 of the Hunch to get all 10 tries correct for a 50% chance of getting the Arka3 Solar ring. Quite demoralising, I'd say. Oh, the usage of the Hunch is quite horrible. First round uses 1, subsequent 8 rounds used up 3 Hunch for each correct guess. Might want to factor that into the calculations.



Last edited by Valsu on Thu Dec 09, 2010 4:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Valsu
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Re: Ring Crafting

Post  Will on Thu Dec 09, 2010 3:12 pm

I didn't really do the math there but for every 3 rings you make (regardless of rank) you get 2 rings of greater value. Ex. Three 3 stars = two 4 stars.

Its early correct me if I'm wrong

Toc
(r) remainders

54 ,3star =
36 ,4star =
24 ,5star =
16,6star(r1)=
10 ,7star(r1) =
9 ,8star=
6 ,9star =
4 ,10star
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Re: Ring Crafting

Post  Will on Thu Dec 09, 2010 4:33 pm

So, how many 3 star rings DOES it take to get a 10 star ring of epicness? This list will show you how much work is actually necessary for such a behemoth item.


This was taken from the IAH Forums and is authored by Flawgic.


Basic Assumptions:
Hypothetical maximum gaming time in hours per day: 16 (assume 8 hours of rest)
Blah blah blah( takes out 7 paragrahs) wrong
-one 500W Computer for 446000 Hours non-stop (approximately 51 years)

Caffeine kills brain cells.
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Re: Ring Crafting

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